Sunday, 27 May 2012

Secular Café: Publishing negative results

Secular Café
Serious discussion of science, skepticism, evolution, pseudoscience, and the paranormal
Publishing negative results
May 28th 2012, 04:13

[1205.4251] Scientific Utopia: II. Restructuring incentives and practices to promote truth over publishability -- Brian A. Nosek, Jeffrey R. Spies, Matt Motyl

One of the things that the authors complained about is a bias toward publishing positive results. It does more for one's career, and many journal editors reject papers containing negative results.

(Wikipedia)Publication bias mentions the "file-drawer effect", as it is sometimes called.
file-drawer effect - The Skeptic's Dictionary - Skepdic.com
CSI | Meta-Analysis and the Filedrawer Effect - Committee for Skeptical Inquiry
File drawer effect: Science studies neglecting negative results - USA Today
Quote:

"The average frequency of positive results was significantly higher when moving from the physical, to the biological to the social sciences, and in applied versus pure disciplines, all of which confirms previous findings. Space science had not only the lowest frequency of positive results overall, it was also the only discipline to show a slight decline in positive results over the years, together with Neuroscience & Behaviour," says the study.

However, some fields of science can give some negative results a positive spin: upper limits and lower limits. For instance, Particle Data Group features numerous upper limits and lower limits. Some examples:

Electron-positron relative charge difference: < 8*10-9
Their relative charge abs-val difference: < 4*10-8
Their relative magnetic-moment abs-val difference: (-0.5 +- 2.1)*10-12
The electron's electric-dipole moment: (0.069 +- 0.074)*10-26 e*cm
Its mean life: > 4.6*1026 years (nu-e + gamma), > 6.4*1024 (disappearance and nuclear de-excitation experiments)
abs-val = absolute value

Heavy Charged Leption: mass > 100.8 GeV
4th Generation Top Quark: mass > 256 GeV
4th Generation Bottom Quark: mass > 128 to 338 GeV, depending on the decay process considered
Additional W: mass > 2 TeV (decay into electron, neutrino)
Additional Z: mass > 1.5 to 1.9 TeV (decay into 2 leptons; somewhat model-dependent)

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